Issued at: 12:08 on Saturday 14 November 2015
Valid from: 18:00 on Saturday 14 November 2015
Valid to: 22:00 on Sunday 15 November 2015
A frontal system is expected to become slow moving across parts of northern England during Saturday and Sunday. Rain associated with this feature is expected to become heavy and persistent, especially over hills exposed to the strong westerly to southwesterly flow.
Be prepared for flooding to occur, the impacts exacerbated by the fact that we have seen heavy rainfall in recent days and conditions are saturated.
This is an update to the warning issued on Friday to include a larger part of Lancashire and the Pennines.
Chief Forecaster’s Assessment
A strong, moist west to southwesterly flow is expected to develop during Saturday and last through most of Sunday before clearing during the evening. This flow is expected to bring a period of heavy and persistent rain, with 50-100 mm of rain falling in many areas. However, as much as 200 to 250 mm may fall across some of the most exposed high ground. This rainfall, falling on to already saturated ground, is likely to lead to further flooding.
There is some uncertainty in the exact locations of heaviest rainfall, as well as peak amounts; this will depend on how far north the frontal system moves and how long it remains aligned across any one area. For this reason, the warning will be kept under review over the weekend.