Issued at: 10:23 on Monday 16 November 2015
Valid from: 10:00 on Tuesday 17 November 2015
Valid to: 23:45 on Tuesday 17 November 2015
Further rain is expected on Tuesday as a frontal system runs across the UK from the west. The largest accumulations are expected across the hills of northwest England and northwest Wales though low lying areas will also see a period of heavy rain. On the southern side of this system some very strong winds are expected and a separate warning for winds is likely to be issued. The public should be aware that, given the already saturated conditions, flooding is possible either from standing water or from rivers already swollen by recent rainfall.
This could lead to disruption to travel and perhaps localised flooding to properties.
This is a further update to the warning originally issued on Friday, reducing the northern extent of the warning and moving into minor impacts.
Chief Forecaster’s Assessment
Two further frontal systems are expected to run eastwards across the country later on Monday and through Tuesday. These will contain very moist tropical air and are likely to lead to further bouts of persistent and, at times, heavy rain. Totals of 20 to 40 mm are possible over the high ground of NW Wales and NW England with peak values of 60 mm over the most exposed sites. The first system is not expected to bring any further flooding itself but will keep the ground saturated with the second system then bringing the risk of further disruption.
Some uncertainties remain over the northern extent of the higher rainfall amounts, as well as the timings of the more intense spells of rain but only minor impacts are not expected.