Issued at: 11:31 on Thursday 10 December 2015
Valid from: 12:00 on Saturday 12 December 2015
Valid to: 23:50 on Saturday 12 December 2015
Rain is likely to spread from the southwest during Saturday. There is a low likelihood of this being sufficiently heavy and prolonged as to lead to some flooding of properties and parts of communities, as well as some travel disruption. However, any impacts are not expected to be as widespread or severe as those observed last weekend.
In addition, there is also the potential for the rain to turn to snow and accumulate – mostly likely, but not exclusively, on high ground. Much uncertainty surrounds Saturday’s weather, but there is the potential for disruption from both rain and snow. This alert will be kept under review and updated as necessary.
Chief Forecaster’s Assessment:
An area of low pressure, associated with a sharp north-south temperature contrast, is expected to move eastwards somewhere across central Britain on Saturday. This has the potential to produce 20 to 40 mm rainfall quite widely. Given saturated ground, this could lead to some flooding.
However, as the associated precipitation encounters colder air across northern England, it may turn to snow. This is most likely towards the north of the yellow area and on high ground, with 5 to 10 cm potentially accumulating above around 200 m. Whilst this would reduce the risk of flooding, it may lead to some travel disruption, especially where flooded roads have been closed and more minor routes are in greater use.
This development is associated with a high degree of uncertainty, especially regarding the track and timing of the depression, and this alert will be kept under review.