Issued at: 12:35 on Thursday 24 December 2015
Valid from: 15:00 on Friday 25 December 2015
Valid to: 23:45 on Saturday 26 December 2015
Outbreaks of rain will gradually spread north across Wales and northern England through the course of Christmas Day. The rain will be heavy at times, particularly over high ground and will persist through much of Boxing Day.
Be aware of the potential for flooding and some disruption to transport.
This is an update to the warning issued on Wednesday morning to include latest estimates of rainfall amounts. Over southern Scotland the likelihood of medium impacts remains very low.
Chief Forecaster’s Assessment:
Rain, persistent and heavy at times, is expected to spread north across the UK on Christmas Day and Boxing Day. During Boxing Day the frontal system, bringing the heaviest and most prolonged spells of rain, is expected to become slow moving across the warning area. There remains uncertainty over where the heaviest rainfall will occur in the warning area, but around 60 to 80 mm is likely to fall quite widely over high ground, with 120 mm possible over the most exposed sites. Despite continuing uncertainties in frontal positioning and therefore rainfall amounts, evidence suggests rainfall accumulations will be sufficiently high to cause some medium levels of disruption. Given sensitivities with saturated ground over Cumbria, the likelihood of medium impacts is higher here and as a result an amber warning has been issued for parts of Cumbria. See the amber warning for further details.
This warning will be reviewed this (Thursday) afternoon and further updates are likely in the coming days