Met Office: Stormy Weather to Continue Next Week

27 December 2015 – December 2015 has already been exceptionally wet in places, and we have more stormy weather to come this week

This is has already been a  record breaking month for rainfall in some parts of the UK, with exceptional amounts of rain falling onto already saturated ground, and Met Office meteorologists are predicting a further spell of stormy weather for this week.

Here is a small selection of new December records from Met Office observing stations around the UK up to 9am 27 December 2015:

Selected station records so far for December 2015

Site

Total 1-26 Dec 2015 (mm)

Long term average (mm)

Previous record

Notes on short records

Shap (Cumbria)

770.8

215.6

504.4mm in 2006

Records start in 1988

Keswick (Cumbria)

516.8

173

376.4mm in 2013

Records start in 1988

Warcop Range (Cumbria)

281

94.1

218.4mm in 2006

Newton Rigg (Cumbria)

295.6

105

228mm in 1914

Stonyhurst (Lancashire)

330.2

141.6

319.3mm in 1951

Morecambe (Lancashire)

278.6

109.2

272mm in 1909

Bainbridge (North Yorkshire)

493.2

156.5

327.2mm in 2006

Bingley (West Yorkshire)

239.6

114.3

247.2mm in 2006

Records start in 1972

Eskdalemuir (Dumfries and Galloway

498.8

184.9

390.4mm in 2014

Glasgow Bishopton

311.4

145.6

294.8mm in 2006

Records start in 1999

Capel Curig (Conwy)

1009.2

308.9

612.8mm in 2006

Records start in 1994

The very wet Boxing Day in parts of north Wales and northwest England was well forecast five days in advance with Amber, be prepared, warnings in force from as early as last Wednesday. In the event the highest rainfall amounts were around 100mm with peaks of 130mm in Lancashire and in excess of 200mm in Snowdonia.

Sunday and Monday will see a respite from the stormy conditions for most of us, with a good deal of dry, mild weather and some sunshine around. Rain is expected in south-west England and south Wales on Monday afternoon and north Wales and north-west England in the evening, however amounts of rain will be much lower than on Boxing Day.

Andy Page, Met Office Chief Meteorologist, said: “We expect stormy conditions to return midweek, and have already issued National Severe Weather Warnings for gales on Tuesday and heavy rain on Wednesday, as an explosively deepening area of low pressure passes to the northwest of the UK

“Everyone should be aware of the potential for disruption in places from further flooding and the impacts of the gales to transport, especially in areas such as south-west Scotland where Amber ‘be prepared’ warnings are in place.

“The weather is particularly unsettled at the moment and we advise everyone to stay up to date with the latest Met Office forecasts and warnings and find out what to do in severe weather so they can plan ahead for the expected weather before it arrives.”

Alison Baptiste, Flood Duty Manager at the Environment Agency, said: “Our thoughts are with all those who have suffered serious flooding to their homes and businesses over Christmas and those who face the risk of further flooding over the coming days.

“We still have 24 severe flood warnings, meaning a risk to life, in force for parts of Yorkshire and river levels in these areas will continue to rise throughout today and tomorrow. People in these communities should continue to check their flood risk, prepare for flooding, follow the advice from emergency services and never risk driving through flood water.

“Environment Agency staff will continue to work around the clock to help reduce the potential impacts of flooding and support those communities affected.”

This very unsettled and occasionally stormy spell was well signalled in our recent three month outlooks and is not unusual for this time of year, indeed this is when climatologically we would expect to have most of our storms.

We only need to go back to the winter of 2013-14 to see storms of similar strength to that we are expecting this week. There are comparable or more severe storms in recent years, including 3 January 2012 and 8 December 2011, each of which caused widespread impacts.

Throughout this unsettled spell Met Office meteorologists and advisors are working round the clock with our partners to keep everyone up to date with the latest forecast information so they can plan and prepare for the expected weather.

Last updated: 27 December 2015

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Merry Christmas!

We’re wishing all our users a very Merry Christmas!

Whether you’re ripping open presents, getting merry on the mulled wine or enjoying the delicious Christmas dinner we hope you’re having a fantastic Christmas!

We’ll still be online updating live on any weather which were to occur.

To view our Christmas Day forecast, click here.

Christmas Day Forecast 2015

This Evening and Tonight (Christmas Eve):

Any showers becoming confined to western hills and then largely dying out later with some good clear spells developing. Chilly with a ground frost developing in rural spots. Lighter winds. Minimum Temperature 2°C.

Tomorrow (Christmas Day):

Dry, bright and chilly at first, but cloud will thicken through the morning with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, spreading in from the southwest during the afternoon. Maximum Temperature 6°C.

Wind: 7 MPH Southwards

Chance of Precipitation: 50 %

Maximum Humidity: 79 %

Met Office Issues Yellow Weather Warning – Rain

Issued at: 12:35 on Thursday 24 December 2015

Valid from: 15:00 on Friday 25 December 2015

Valid to: 23:45 on Saturday 26 December 2015

Outbreaks of rain will gradually spread north across Wales and northern England through the course of Christmas Day. The rain will be heavy at times, particularly over high ground and will persist through much of Boxing Day. 

Be aware of the potential for flooding and some disruption to transport.

This is an update to the warning issued on Wednesday morning to include latest estimates of rainfall amounts. Over southern Scotland the likelihood of medium impacts remains very low.

Chief Forecaster’s Assessment: 

Rain, persistent and heavy at times, is expected to spread north across the UK on Christmas Day and Boxing Day. During Boxing Day the frontal system, bringing the heaviest and most prolonged spells of rain, is expected to become slow moving across the warning area. There remains uncertainty over where the heaviest rainfall will occur in the warning area, but around 60 to 80 mm is likely to fall quite widely over high ground, with 120 mm possible over the most exposed sites. Despite continuing uncertainties in frontal positioning and therefore rainfall amounts, evidence suggests rainfall accumulations will be sufficiently high to cause some medium levels of disruption. Given sensitivities with saturated ground over Cumbria, the likelihood of medium impacts is higher here and as a result an amber warning has been issued for parts of Cumbria. See the amber warning for further details.

This warning will be reviewed this (Thursday) afternoon and further updates are likely in the coming days

Met Office: 2016 Global Mean Temperature Forecast

17 December 2015 – Forecast expects 2016 to be among the warmest years

The global mean temperature for 2016 is expected to be between 0.72 °C and 0.96 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C, with a central estimate of 0.84 °C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast.

Using the 1981-2010 long-term average of 14.3 °C, the range is between 0.41 °C and 0.65 °C, with a central estimate of 0.53 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term mean.

Professor Chris Folland, Met Office research fellow, said: “2015 is on track to be the warmest year on record, and this forecast suggests 2016 is likely to be at least as warm, if not warmer.”

Man-made global warming, combined with a smaller effect from El Niño from unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean feature within our forecast. The forecast is based on the key drivers of global climate, but it doesn’t include random events, such as large volcanic eruptions – which can cause a temporary cooling effect.

The outlook for 2016 is warmer than the Met Office’s forecast for 2015, which had a range of 0.52 °C to 0.76 °C and a central estimate of 0.64 °C (using the 1961-1990 long-term average). Data from Jan-Oct shows the global mean temperature for this year so far is 0.72 °C [note 2] (+/- 0.1 °C).

As the table below indicates, the forecast for 2016 – including the range of uncertainties – also places the coming year among the warmest on record. The fact that 2014, 2015 and 2016 are all likely to be amongst the warmest years on record is also consistent with the outlook given in the Met Office research news article from earlier this year.

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: “This forecast suggests that by the end of 2016 we will have seen three record, or near-record years in a row for global temperatures.”

The Met Office doesn’t expect this run of back-to-back records continue indefinitely, but the current situation shows how global warming can combine with smaller, natural fluctuations to push our climate to levels of warmth which are unprecedented in the data records.

Global average temperature anomalies for the last 20 years

WMO global average temperature anomaly (+/- 0.1 °C) compared to:

Year

1961 – 1990 average

1981 – 2010 average

2015

0.72 (Jan – Oct)

0.41

2014

0.61

0.30

2013

0.53

0.22

2012

0.50

0.19

2011

0.46

0.15

2010

0.59

0.28

2009

0.52

0.21

2008

0.42

0.11

2007

0.51

0.20

2006

0.51

0.20

2005

0.56

0.25

2004

0.45

0.14

2003

0.51

0.20

2002

0.50

0.19

2001

0.44

0.13

2000

0.31

0.00

1999

0.32

0.00

1998

0.53

0.22

1997

0.39

0.08

1996

0.21

-0.10

Met Office Issues Yellow Weather Alert – Rain & Snow

Issued at: 11:31 on Thursday 10 December 2015

Valid from: 12:00 on Saturday 12 December 2015

Valid to: 23:50 on Saturday 12 December 2015

Rain is likely to spread from the southwest during Saturday. There is a low likelihood of this being sufficiently heavy and prolonged as to lead to some flooding of properties and parts of communities, as well as some travel disruption. However, any impacts are not expected to be as widespread or severe as those observed last weekend.

In addition, there is also the potential for the rain to turn to snow and accumulate – mostly likely, but not exclusively, on high ground. Much uncertainty surrounds Saturday’s weather, but there is the potential for disruption from both rain and snow. This alert will be kept under review and updated as necessary.

Chief Forecaster’s Assessment:

An area of low pressure, associated with a sharp north-south temperature contrast, is expected to move eastwards somewhere across central Britain on Saturday. This has the potential to produce 20 to 40 mm rainfall quite widely. Given saturated ground, this could lead to some flooding.

However, as the associated precipitation encounters colder air across northern England, it may turn to snow. This is most likely towards the north of the yellow area and on high ground, with 5 to 10 cm potentially accumulating above around 200 m. Whilst this would reduce the risk of flooding, it may lead to some travel disruption, especially where flooded roads have been closed and more minor routes are in greater use.

This development is associated with a high degree of uncertainty, especially regarding the track and timing of the depression, and this alert will be kept under review.

Forecast for Thursday 10 December 2015

This Evening and Tonight (Wednesday):

A wet and windy start to the night is expected. The rain will clear southwards after midnight, possibly followed by the odd shower which may turn wintry over hills. Some clearer spells developing by the end of the night. Minimum Temperature 1°C.

Tomorrow (Thursday):

Staying windy on Thursday with some long sunny spells in the morning. More cloud with a few showers for the afternoon, showers may turn wintry over the Pennines. Maximum Temperature 9°C.

Wind: 19 MPH west-southwesterly

Chance of Precipitation: 10 %

Maximum Humidity: 71 %

Sunrise: 08:22 Sunset: 15:36

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Met Office Issues Yellow Weather Warning – Wind

Issued at: 10:41 on Wednesday 9 December 2015

Valid from: 12:00 on Wednesday 9 December 2015

Valid to: 23:50 on Wednesday 9 December 2015

Southwesterly winds will increase on Wednesday afternoon across parts of northern England and southern and central Scotland, with gales developing widely, locally severe. The gales are expected to last through the afternoon and evening but should ease by the early hours of Thursday.

Be aware that some low level disruption looks likely along with difficult driving conditions with the combination of rain and strong winds.

This warning has been updated to include more of southern and eastern Scotland.

Chief Forecaster’s Assessment:

A deepening depression is expected to move northeastwards passing to the northwest of Scotland on Wednesday. The associated frontal system will swing quickly eastwards into the area on Wednesday bringing gales with gusts of 50-60 mph widely and perhaps 70 mph over more exposed locations.

Forecast for Tuesday 8 December 2015

This Evening and Tonight (Monday):

Starting dry this evening before cloud and outbreaks of rain move in from the west before midnight, lasting into the early hours of Tuesday. The persistent rain will clear but will soon be followed by showers. Breezy and staying mild. Minimum Temperature 9°C.

Tomorrow (Tuesday):

Tuesday starting bright with scattered showers. Into the afternoon the showers will tend to become heavier and more widespread, dying out after dark. Turning colder with a brisk wind. Maximum Temperature 11°C.

Wind: 14 MPH south-southwesterly

Chance of Precipitation: 10 %

Maximum Humidity: 78 %

Sunrise: 08:20 Sunset: 15:37

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Forecast for Monday 7 December 2015

This Evening and Tonight (Sunday):

A dry evening with light winds and clear spells giving a chilly start to the night. However, it will become increasingly cloudy overnight with some patchy rain at times and a southeasterly breeze developing. Minimum Temperature 1°C.

Tomorrow (Monday):

Outbreaks of rain during the morning, then mainly dry although cloudy for the rest of the day. Milder than Sunday although with a strengthening breeze. Further, perhaps heavy, rain overnight. Maximum Temperature 11°C.

Wind: 13 MPH southwesterly

Chance of Precipitation: 50 %

Maximum Humidity: 90 %

Sunrise: 08:18 Sunset: 15:38